March Forecast II: Evaluating Dayton’s NCAA tournament chances

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Dayton against Saint Louis on Wednesday, Jan. 27, 2016, at UD Arena in Dayton. David Jablonski/Staff
Dayton against Saint Louis on Wednesday, Jan. 27, 2016, at UD Arena in Dayton. David Jablonski/Staff

The UD pep band on Wednesday, Jan. 27, 2016, at UD Arena in Dayton. David Jablonski/Staff

Forty one days remain until Selection Sunday, the unofficial basketball holiday of college basketball. The Dayton Flyers hope the only questions they have March 13 are:

What’s our seed?

Who are we playing?

Where are we playing?

How much will the other team’s fans complain when our fans turn the game in Spokane, or wherever, into a home game?

Fortunately, there’s a small army of bracketologists working on those answers as we speak. Take these predictions for what they’re worth:

Joe Lunardi, ESPN: Lunardi bumped the Flyers up a spot this week to a No. 5 seed. He has them playing No. 12 seed Arkansas-Little Rock in Denver.

Stewart Mandel, Fox Sports: Same as Lunardi’s. No. 5 Dayton vs. No. 12 Arkansas-Little Rock but in Oklahoma City.

Jerry Palm, CBS: Palm also gives Dayton a No. 5 seed with a matchup against No. 12 Valparaiso, of the Horizon League.

Michael Beller, SI.com: No change here. No. 5 Dayton vs. No. 12 Gonzaga/UCLA.

Dave Ommen, NBCSports.com: A rematch from 2014. No. 6 Dayton vs. No. 11 Syracuse in Providence.

Brackonomics: No. 5 Dayton vs. No. 12 Valparaiso in Providence.

Bracketville: Also No. 6 Dayton vs. No. 11 Syracuse in Providence.

HoopsHD.com: Here’s an interesting matchup. No. 5 Dayton vs. No. 12 Duke (and Franklin’s Luke Kennard) in Denver. The Blue Devils dropped from the top 25 this week for the first time since 2007.

Eamonn Brennan, ESPN’s Bubble Watch: Brennan lists UD as a team that “should be in.” He writes, “When the Flyers beat Iowa back on Nov. 26, no one really batted an eye, and it wasn’t just the turkey coma: Dayton was pretty good, Iowa was pretty good, neither team was ranked. Ho-hum. Now the Hawkeyes are a top-five beast with road sweeps of Michigan State and Purdue, and the Flyers measure their resume’s improvement in Jarrod Uthoff buckets. Flyers head coach Archie Miller has this thing rolling.”

Other rankings

Dance Card ranks Dayton 16th in the nation with a 100 percent chance of making the tournament.

While Dayton’s strength of schedule has fallen in recent weeks with a stretch of games against the four-worst ranked A-10 teams in the RPI, its RPI rank hasn’t fallen too far. It ranks 13th. Saturday’s opponent, George Mason, ranks 182nd.

KenPom.com ranks Dayton 37th. It two spots short of the highest the Flyers have ranked all season. They started the season 64th.

TeamRankings.com gives Dayton a 94.6 percent chance of making the tournament and a whopping 0.2 percent chance of winning the NCAA championship.

BracketMatrix.com reports Dayton’s average seed, from all the various predictions, is a No. 5. The Flyers rank as high as a No. 3 seed and as low as a No. 9.

Dayton ranks 24th in the Associated Press and USA Today coaches polls. It’s the first time since 2009 the Flyers have been ranked for more than one week in the regular season.

 

 

 

 


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