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March Forecast III: Evaluating UD’s NCAA tournament chances

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The Flyers at George Mason on Saturday. David Jablonski/Staff

Thirty three days remain until Selection Sunday. With seven straight victories and a top-20 ranking, the Dayton Flyers keep rising in NCAA tournament projections. Archie Miller and Co. are wisely focused only on the Duquesne game tonight, so Coach, if you’re reading (yeah, right), stop reading now.

Here’s a roundup of what the bracketologists think or as one of our Flyer Nation Facebook commentators called last week a little bit of “useless journalism.”

Joe Lunardi, ESPN: The Flyers jumped a spot in Lunardi’s bracket. He has them as a No. 4 seed playing No. 13 seed South Dakota State in Spokane, Wash. … Spokane continues to be my prediction for where UD will play, if only because they had a favorable draw two years ago with Buffalo and, of course, last year with UD Arena and Columbus.

Jerry Palm, CBS: The Flyers also leaped a spot in Palm’s prediction. He also has them as a No. 4 seed playing South Dakota State, but in Denver. That would be a fun site to visit for the first round. Everyone pack their ski gear and Peyton Manning jerseys.

131Sports: No. 4 seed Dayton vs. No. 13 Stonybrook.

HoopsHD: Another matchup with South Dakota State. No. 4 vs. No. 13. SDS has a great nickname, the Jackrabbits.

Michael Beller, SI.com: No. 5 Dayton vs. No. 12 San Diego State.

Brad Evans, Yahoo: Gives Dayton a No. 4 seed and writes, “A-10 kings shaping up to make deep March run.”

Shelby Mast, USA Today: No. 5 Dayton vs. No. 12 Clemson/LSU in Denver.

Dave Ommen, NBC Sports: No. 5 Dayton vs. No. 12 Valparaiso in Raleigh, N.C.

NCAABracketology: No. 3 Dayton vs. No. 14 Hawaii in St. Louis.

Brackonomics: No. 4 Dayton vs. No. 13 Akron in Spokane.

Eamonn Brennan, Bubble Watch: This ESPN writer lists the Flyers as a team that “should be in,” but he’s not quite ready to call them a lock. He writes, “If the Flyers’ 98-64 win at George Mason was an indication of how they plan to finish the 2015-16 A-10 regular season, they will have zero problems with this whole NCAA tournament thing, and their computer numbers (top-15 RPI, top-5 nonconference SOS) remain great. So why aren’t they a lock? Save Iowa, which is a beast, the rest of their wins aren’t quite lock-level, and, more than anything, playing in the A-10 means that five of the Flyers’ last eight games come against sub-100 teams. The schedule is just frightening enough to hold off on. But a lock is coming soon enough.”

Other rankings

KenPom.com ranks Dayton No. 32. This is the highest Dayton has been all season. It’s also only four spots ahead of a 10-loss Vanderbilt team UD beat. That doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. Blame math, I guess.

BracketMatrix.com calculates Dayton’s average seed as a 4.41.

TeamRankings.com ranks Dayton 37th with a 98.6 percent chance of making the big dance.

The Dance Card, from the University of North Florida, ranks Dayton 15th with a 100 percent chance of dancing.

The Flyers rank 19th in the Associated Press poll. It’s the highest they’ve ranked in that poll since they were 18th in November 2009. The Flyers rank 17th in the USA Today coaches poll.

 

 

 


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