March Forecast IV: Evaluating Dayton Flyers’ NCAA tournament chances

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Scoochie Smith makes a wild layup at Rhode Island. David Jablonski/Staff

Twenty six days remain until Selection Sunday. Someone on Twitter told me to stop writing about the NCAA tournament. I guess he believes in jinxes. I told him March Madness is too big for one month.

With that in mind, here’s a rundown of where the Dayton Flyers stand in the bracket predictions.

Joe Lunardi, ESPN: Lunardi is updating his bracket every three to four days. He still has Dayton as a No. 4 seed, but the opponent changed this week. It’s now Yale. The site is Denver. The second-round opponent would be No. 5 seed Duke or No. 12 seed Valparaiso.

Jerry Palm, CBS Sports: No. 4 Dayton vs. No. 13 San Diego State in Denver. Winner plays Kentucky or Valpo.

131Sports: No. 4 Dayton vs. No. 13 Arkansas Little Rock.

HoopsHD: No. 4 Dayton vs. No. 13 Akron in Des Moines, Iowa.

Michael Beller, No. 4 Dayton vs. No. 13 Hawaii. Beller writes, “The Flyers have now won nine straight games, and while the Atlantic 10 isn’t as strong this season as it has been over the last few, their sterling record in a conference that’s going to get multiple at-large bids speaks for itself.”

Brad Evans, Yahoo: Has Dayton as the last of the No. 4 seeds.

Shelby Mast, USA Today: No. 5 Dayton vs. No. 12 San Diego State in Spokane, Wash.

Dave Ommen, NBC Sports: No. 4 Dayton vs. No. 13 Valparaiso in Spokane.

NCAABracketology: No. 3 Dayton vs. No. 14 Akron in St. Louis.

Brackonomics: No. 4 Dayton vs. No. 13 Akron in Denver.

Bubble Watch: ESPN’s Eamonn Brennan moved Dayton to lock status today. He wrote, “Even a 3-3 record down the stretch, which seems unlikely given this team’s 6-1 record in true road games, gets you to 24-6 with a quality nonconference schedule and — we can’t stress this enough — a neutral-court win over Iowa. No, the Flyers have not played their best basketball in the past week. Yes, the A-10 has a few more land mines lying in wait than most. But this team is going to the tournament. Let’s just lock them up now and get it over with, huh?”

Other rankings

  • Dayton’s average seed on BracketMatrix is 4.20.
  • The North Florida Dance Card ranks Dayton 15th with a 100 percent chance of making the tournament.
  •, not a fan of Dayton’s many close wins, ranks it 37th.
  • ranks Dayton 39th with a 99.5 percent chance of making the tournament.
  • Dayton ranks 31st in ESPN’s Basketball Power Index.
  • Dayton ranks 34th in the Sagarin Ratings.
  • The Flyers rank 15th in the Associated Press Poll and 13th in the USA Today Coaches Poll.
  • In the A-10, Dayton (21-3, 11-1) has a one-game lead over VCU and St. Joseph’s (both 10-2) and a two-game lead over St. Bonaventure (9-3). The Flyers need only two more wins to clinch one of the top four seeds in the conference tournament because they have a four-game lead over George Washington (7-5) and own a tiebreaker with GW.





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