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March Forecast V: Evaluating Dayton Flyers’ NCAA tournament chances

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Charles Cooke runs into a pick by Dion Wright, and Dyshawn Pierre guards Jaylen Adams just before his go-ahead 3-pointer in the final minute Saturday at UD Arena. David Jablonski/Staff

The Dayton Flyers lost two games in a row, and Archie Miller said Saturday it’s not the end of the world. He said Monday it’s not time to panic.

My guess is most members of the Flyer Faithful will heed his advice, and a few will be rocking in the corner (as one fan told me he’d be doing), chewing on their fingernails. Another fan on Twitter urged fans to ignore talk of March Madness, writing, “As a faithful Flyer follower, please stop the Bracketology talk! Win games. The rest shall come. … I prefer humility over hubris. Dignity & determination prevail.”

For now, the Flyers are still in great shape to make the NCAA tournament for a third straight season. A victory Tuesday at Saint Louis help sHere’s how they rank in a few of the many predictions.

RELATED: Explore UD’s history while ranked

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PREVIEW: Dayton at Saint Louis

FEATURE: Flyers try to get back on track after two losses

Joe Lunardi, ESPN: The king of bracketology dropped the Flyers a spot with their two losses last week. He has No. 5 seed Dayton playing No. 12 San Diego State in Spokane, Wash., with the Flyers potentially earning an interesting second-round matchup against Archie Miller’s brother Sean and No. 4 seed Arizona.

Jerry Palm, CBS Sports: Palm dropped the Flyers two spots to a No. 6 playing No. 11 Temple in Brooklyn.

131Sports: No. 5 Dayton vs. No. 12 San Diego State.

HoopsHD: No. 5 Dayton vs. No. 12 San Diego State in Spokane.

Michael Beller, SI.com: No. 6 Dayton vs. No. 11 St. Mary’s.

Brad Evans, Yahoo: Ranks Dayton as a No. 6 on his big board.

Shelby Mast, USA Today: No. 7 Dayton vs. No. 10 Michigan in Raleigh, N.C.

Dave Ommen, NBC Sports: No. 6 Dayton vs. No. 11 Temple in Providence.

NCAABracketology: No. 5 Dayton vs. No. 12 San Diego State in Des Moines, Iowa.

Bubble Watch: ESPN’s Eamonn Brennan listed Dayton as a lock for the tournament last week and isn’t backing off that prediction. This week, he wrote, “Do you dare doubt the power of the “Bubble Watch Lock Curse”? Dayton’s post-lock road loss at Saint Joseph’s last week was not enough to sway you? Take heed, skeptics, for on Saturday the once-mighty Flyers, beset by the curse’s dark energies, lost at UD Arena 79-72 to St. Bonaventure! All will bow before the mighty power of the Curse! (Note to Dayton fans: Those aren’t bad losses, but even if they were, UD is getting in. Don’t freak out.)”

Other rankings

  • Dayton’s average seed on BracketMatrix is 5.55. The Flyers are seeded as high as No. 4 and as low as No. 8.
  • The North Florida Dance Card ranks Dayton 18th with a 100 percent chance of making the tournament.
  • KenPom.com ranks Dayton 49th and favors it in the last four games.
  • TeamRankings.com ranks Dayton 43rd with a 93.4 percent chance of making the tournament.
  • Dayton ranks 40 in ESPN’s Basketball Power Index.
  • Dayton ranks 42nd in the Sagarin Ratings.
  • Dayton ranks 17th in the RPI.
  • The Flyers rank 26th in the Associated Press Poll and 22nd in the USA Today Coaches Poll.
  • In the A-10, Dayton (21-5, 11-3) is tied for second with St. Joseph’s (22-5, 11-3). VCU (20-7, 12-2) leads the A-10 by a game.

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