March Forecast VI: Evaluating Dayton Flyers’ NCAA tournament chances

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Archie Miller calls a timeout in the final minutes against Rhode Island. David Jablonski/Staff

March is here. For fans of the Dayton Flyers, the calendar turns with doubts and disbelief in the air. Will their team, once seemingly a lock for the NCAA tournament, turn things around before a complete collapse? If they don’t win again, would they still play in the Big Dance? How many tickets could UD sell for a NIT game?

The NCAA takes into account injuries, so the Flyers might get a break for a couple of the losses they experienced without Kendall Pollard, but they have him back now, so that excuse is gone. For now, lets not look ahead at what might happen in the final week of the regular season and in the A-1o tournament. Let’s see where the Flyers would stand, according to the experts, if the season ended today.

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A-10 NOTES: Senior Night for Richmond on Tuesday

Joe Lunardi, ESPN: Lunardi’s just messing with the fans right now. No. 7 Dayton vs. No. 10 Cincinnati with the winner playing No. 2 Xavier or No. 15 UAB.

Jerry Palm, CBS Sports: Palm did not change his Dayton prediction after the loss to Rhode Island. He still has the Flyers as a No. 6 playing No. 11 Temple in Brooklyn.

131Sports: No. 8 Dayton vs. No. 9 Providence in Des Moines, Iowa.

HoopsHD: No. 5 Dayton vs. No. 12 San Diego State in Spokane.

Michael Beller, SI.com: No. 8 Dayton vs. No. 9 Oregon State.

Brad Evans, Yahoo: Ranks Dayton No. 25 overall and as a No. 6 seed and writes, “Bottom falling out. Pollard 2-10 in return. D slipping.”

Shelby Mast, USA Today: No. 8 Dayton vs. No. 9 Oregon State in Des Moines

Dave Ommen, NBC Sports: No. 7 Dayton vs. No. 10 St. Mary’s in St. Louis.

NCAABracketology: No. 6 Dayton vs. No. 11 Connecticut in Brooklyn.

Bubble Watch: ESPN’s Eamonn Brennan is sticking to his lock prediction for the Flyers but probably kicking himself. He writes, “Tuesday marked the fourth day of large-scale protests on the streets of Bubble Watch City, after an already-simmering unrest boiled over for the first time Saturday afternoon following Dayton’s home loss to Rhode Island, 75-66. Immediately after the game, demonstrators identified as members of a local sect known as “Dayton Flyers fans” descended, en masse, on the gates of the Bubble Watch presidential manor. The group says its anger, directed at the Bubble Watch president himself, is a response to his role in locking the Flyers into the tournament bracket on Feb. 16 — despite the group’s devout belief in the power of the Bubble Watch “lock curse.”

Other rankings:

  • Dayton’s average seed on BracketMatrix is 7.03. The Flyers are seeded as high as No. 5 and as low as No. 10.
  • The North Florida Dance Card ranks Dayton 25th with a 100 percent chance of making the tournament.
  • KenPom.com ranks Dayton 56th.
  • TeamRankings.com ranks Dayton 47th with a 87.2  percent chance, down from 93.4, of making the tournament.
  • Dayton ranks 45th in ESPN’s Basketball Power Index.
  • Dayton ranks 47th in the Sagarin Ratings, down from 42nd.
  • Dayton dropped from 17th to 25th in the RPI.
  • The Flyers received one vote in the Associated Press Poll and dropped from 22nd to 34th in the USA Today Coaches Poll.
  • In the A-10, Dayton (22-6, 12-4) is tied for third with St. Bonaventure (20-7, 12-4) and has clinched a top-four seed. St. Joseph’s (24-5, 13-3) and VCU (21-8, 13-3) lead the Flyers and Bonnies by a game

 


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